“ Frontline Heroes of our community: Health Care Workers, EMS, Law Enforcement, Fire Department, Emergency Services, Teachers and School District employees– be sure to visit The Lift Coffee House next to Mountain Pizza for a free coffee or espresso drink this month with thanks from Pagosa Source Real Estate Advisors.”
Will our national and local economic recovery be “V-Shaped” or “U-Shaped”? Will it be a quick and steep bounce out of the bottom, or will it be a slower, more gradual climb back up. Will the furloughed and laid-off employees gain their jobs and pay back, or will employers find they need fewer workers as things start to re-open?
Trying to formulate an educated guess of what a recovery will look like is no easy task and requires a coordination of three different sciences. This approach was proposed by some sharp real estate journalists that closely monitor changes in home buying behavior.
Business Science: How has the economy responded in the past to similar crises? How long did it take for employment to recover? This is a tough question to answer. We have never had this type of pandemic, this level of job loss and rapid decline in economic activity.
Health Science– How long will it take for Covid-19 to be controlled, and to research, develop and implement a vaccine? Will there be a second wave of infections, or will the virus mutate and return? Health science is working around the clock to understand this virus and to find an effective treatment and vaccine.
Behavior Science—Once businesses open back up, how long will it take for people to feel safe and comfortable to return to their normal consumer behaviors?
How quickly will visitors feel safe taking a commercial flight from Dallas or Phoenix to Durango; enjoying a cold beer in a crowded local brewpub, attending a concert on Reservoir Hill, getting into a raft with ten other adventurers to ride down the San Juan River, or slipping into the Hot Springs with 6-8 friends and fellow visitors?
Trying to combine these three sciences to forecast the future of the economy creates lots of uncertainty and differing estimates. Many Economists and Analysts project the recovery will take between 6 and 18 months. That seems like a reasonably educated guess. This will be a different real estate environment for sure.
Interested in knowing when it makes sense to request mortgage payment relief from your Lender and what impact that would that have on your credit? Do you want to know how local residential and commercial landlords are responding to the abrupt decline in local business activity and huge jump in unemployment claims?
What are the three most important factors if you are selling in this market? For Buyers- how do you know you are buying right in this kind of market? Learn how smart investors keep emotions from turning against them during these uncertain times. Watch for Part Three and Four, or call or text me at 970 946-6030, email me: Mike@PagosaRealEstate.com
